Occam’s Razor
The answer that requires the fewest assumptions — is generally the correct one.
All the way back in the 12th century, the Franciscan friar William of Ockham gave the world a rule: “Plurality must never be posited without necessity.” Put more simply, the simplest answer — that is, the answer that requires the fewest assumptions — is generally the correct one.
In the 800-plus years since Friar William laid down his maxim, logicians have turned it into a rule: Occam’s Razor.
Hello, my name is Fidel Andrada. Occam’s razor simply states that of any given set of explanations for an event occurring, the simplest one is most likely the correct one.
Occam’s razor makes no absolute assertions. It does not claim that the simplest answer is always correct. It merely suggests that, among all possible answers to a question, one’s best bet is generally the one that requires the fewest assumptions.
How Occam’s Razor Works
Some examples of Occam’s razor include the following:
One of the fence posts is broken.
Of possible explanations:
a) An albino moose, lost on its quest for its squirrel best friend, crashed through the fence in despair, or
b) An old nail rusted through,
Explanation “b” is more likely.
The tire on the car is flat.
Of possible explanations:
a) The screw stuck in the tire wall let the air out, or
b) Serial tire-flatteners sliced it open with a laser scalpel, creating an imperceptible hole, then inserted the screw in another part of the tire to mark their victory
Hopefully, you picked “a” as more likely.
It is raining and I saw a bright flash through my curtains.
a) lightning
b) UFOs are trying to pull my roof off
Do you understand which is more likely? That’s how Occam’s Razor works.
A student failed the statistics test.
a) The student needed to study harder
b) Malicious textbook publishers put wrong answers in the study guide in hopes of sabotaging future statisticians
Which is more likely?
An incumbent US President lost an election.
Of possible explanations:
a) More people voted for the other candidate from each state earning him the electoral votes, or
b) The election was a fraud and there were clandestine and illegal efforts shaping election results: such as procedural violations of electoral law (from mail-in ballots) to the outright use of stealing elections and ballot-rigging that were the nature, magnitude, and causes of this election to be fraudulent.
According to William of Ockham, which is the most likely explanation for the other candidate’s victory?
When You Assume…
Occam’s razor is a vital tool in rigorous thought. By reducing the number of unsupported assumptions in an explanation, you reduce the likelihood of being wrong. That’s as true now as it was in the 12th century.
